The plastic market is expected to reach a new high within the year.
after more than a month of repeated shocks, plastics finally made a breakthrough. Recently, the main 1401 contract successfully broke through the new high of the year, and the futures price rose to above 11700 points. As the month approached, after the main force began to attack the 1405 contract, its price also began to advance by leaps and bounds, and finally crossed the pressure line of 11000 points. As a result, it is not impossible for the new main force 1405 contract to rise to the high of 11500 points this year
since this summer, due to the unremitting breakthrough of plastics, the topic of petrochemical price support has been constantly mentioned. By the end of the year, this factor is still effective, but its impact on the market has begun to weaken. First, the spot price of plastics is no longer struggling to rise. The mainstream price in East China is 11950 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price in North China is 111 yuan. First of all, we should consider the need to test the material tension range of yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in South China is yuan/ton. This price range has maintained for nearly a month. The spot price did not continue to rise, and of course it did not loosen. Secondly, there have been many changes in the situation of unit maintenance in petrochemical enterprises. The most important thing is the resumption of production of Fushun Petrochemical plant after nearly six months of shutdown. However, it is worth noting that Fushun's online operation did not cause an immediate impact on the market, and the market did not respond much. The reason is still the LLDPE of Fushun Petrochemical "If we consider that the internal pneumatic capacity is less than half of the LLDPE capacity that Fujian United shut down. As of November 26, the LLDPE production lines involved in the domestic petrochemical plant maintenance production lines include Daqing Petrochemical, Lanzhou Petrochemical and Fujian united production lines, with a total capacity of 1.16 million tons. Compared with previous months, the situation of limited production due to plant maintenance has also been much better. In general, the above two points Although it can be seen from the volume and price that the strength of petrochemical price support is weakened, its supporting effect is obvious in the field of power batteries
in the remaining month of the year, it is worth looking forward to a breakthrough in plastic prices. Last year, the trend of plastics made a breakthrough in November due to the hype of "urbanization" and continued to rise. However, since the summer of this year, plastics has maintained its strength, mainly because of the qualitative changes in the plastic market, including the fact that this year, it may be to avoid the oversupply situation after the expansion of PVC production capacity, and the output and capacity expansion have been effectively controlled. In this way, market confidence has been significantly enhanced, and the bulls have won again and again in the process of multi space sawing. As in this wave of market at the end of November, the plastic futures price suddenly surprised the Bulls while the market was still waiting for a breakthrough
to sum up, it is difficult for short sellers to reverse the current long trend during the year or even before the Spring Festival next year, which will cause the VOC emission of interior parts to be on the high side. In terms of operation, it is recommended that bulls increase their positions after the futures price has stabilized at 11000 points. The low multiple orders have a better chance of winning. For multiple orders at points, it is recommended to set stop loss lines above and below 10900 points. The risk that needs to be prevented is that the current demand side has a certain resistance to high price sources, including some downstream manufacturers with orders that also shut down some production lines because of high costs, which may lead to weak demand
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